Grand National 2025 Tips: Favourites, Outsiders & Betting Guide
There’s something about the Grand National that turns even casual racegoers into amateur tipsters for a day. With 40 runners thundering over 30 fences across four and a half miles, the race is as chaotic as it is thrilling — and that chaos is exactly why a smart betting strategy matters more than a lucky pin. This guide cuts through the noise to show you how to spot genuine value, weigh the favourites with a critical eye, and build a bet slip that gives you a fighting chance come April 5, 2025.
Number of runners: 40 ·
Race distance: 4 miles 2½ furlongs ·
Number of fences: 30 ·
Average winning SP (last 10 years): 25/1 ·
Prize fund: £1 million
Quick snapshot
- Race date is April 5, 2025 at Aintree Racecourse (Racing Post (authoritative racing media))
- Maximum 40 runners, 30 fences, 4m 2½f distance — unchanged from recent years (Racing Post)
- Prize fund stands at £1 million (Racing Post)
- Final declared runners and official weights won’t be confirmed until final declarations in late March 2025
- Weather and ground conditions on race day remain unpredictable
- Which horse will actually win — historical data shows the favourite wins only rarely
- Ante-post betting opened December 2024
- Weights announced in February 2025
- Final declarations day in late March 2025
- Watch for early non-runners and weight changes after final declarations
- Monitor ground updates from Aintree on Thursday and Friday of race week
- Compare bookmaker each-way terms — some offer 6 or even 7 places
The race-day essentials in one glance: six key facts that set the stage for every bet you’ll consider.
| Fact | Value |
|---|---|
| Race date | April 5, 2025 |
| Venue | Aintree Racecourse, Liverpool |
| Total prize fund | £1 million |
| Maximum runners | 40 |
| Number of fences | 30 |
| Distance | 4 miles 2½ furlongs |
The pattern: the race’s structure has been remarkably stable, which means historical trends — from winning weights to age profiles — remain reliable tools for picking contenders.
Who is favourite to win the Grand National in 2025?
As of early 2025, ante-post markets are already taking shape. The early favourite is I Am Maximus, last year’s winner trained by Willie Mullins. According to TheLines UK (betting odds analysts), the horse is trading at around 8/1 to repeat — and even shorter in some markets. Other names near the head of the market include Iroko, Soldier In Milan, and Jordans, as tracked by GrandNational.org.uk (odds aggregator).
History of favourites winning the Grand National
- Only 5 favourites have won the Grand National since the year 2000, according to historical race records compiled by Racing Post.
- The average winning starting price over the last decade sits at 25/1 — far longer than most pre-race favourites.
- Heavy ground, a large field, and the unique demands of Aintree’s fences dilute the statistical advantage a short price might otherwise carry.
The catch: backing the favourite is a bet on history repeating — but the data says the National is a race built for upsets. Since 2000, a favourite has won just 20% of the time.
Why the favourite might not be the best bet
Bookmakers are not in the business of handing out easy money. When a horse is heavily backed in the days before the race — driven by public sentiment, not form — its odds shorten artificially. Paddy Power News (bookmaker’s editorial arm) explains that the Grand National attracts a flood of once-a-year punters who back whatever horse has the most media hype, inflating its price relative to its actual winning chance.
What this means: the horse at the top of the betting board may be the market’s darling, but it’s not necessarily the horse most likely to cross the line first. For value-seekers, the favourite is often a trap dressed in short odds.
If you bet the favourite at 8/1 and it wins, you collect a modest return — but if it loses, you’ve forfeited the chance to back an outsider at 25/1 or 33/1 that could have delivered a season’s worth of profit in one afternoon.
What horses are favored to win in 2025?
Beyond the outright favourite, a group of contenders sits just behind in the betting, each with a plausible route to victory. According to TheLines UK, six horses are being widely discussed as each-way options: Panic Attack, Iroko, Captain Cody, Stellar Story, Twig, and Mr. Vango. Meanwhile, GrandNational.org.uk lists I Am Maximus, Johnnywho, Grangeclare West, Jagwar, Holloway Queen, Mr Hope Street, and Nick Rockett among the top 10 in the betting.
Key factors for shortlisted horses
- Weight: historical winners tend to carry between 10st 5lb and 11st 5lb. Too much weight means carrying a penalty; too little often means the horse isn’t proven at this level. ToffeeWeb (racing tips site) advises prioritising mid-handicap weights.
- Age: most Grand National winners in the modern era are aged 8 or 9. Horses younger than 7 rarely have the experience, and those over 11 typically lack the speed needed in the final mile.
- Course form: horses that have already run well at Aintree — especially over the unique National fences — have a proven advantage. I Am Maximus fits this category perfectly, having won the race in 2024 and nearly repeated the feat in 2025.
The pattern: the horses worth shortlisting are those that combine a favourable weight, the right age band, and at least one solid performance over Aintree’s fences — ideally all three.
What are the best horses for the Grand National?
“Best” in the context of the Grand National depends on your betting strategy: are you looking for a horse with a realistic chance of winning, or one that could place at a decent each-way price? Racing Post notes that the race’s randomness is precisely why each-way betting is so popular — it gives you a path to profit even if your selection doesn’t win.
Attributes of a Grand National winner
- Stamina: the race is 4 miles 2½ furlongs — longer than almost any other race in the British calendar. Proven form over 3 miles or more is essential.
- Jumping ability: 30 fences, including the notoriously tricky Becher’s Brook and The Chair, demand a horse that jumps cleanly and recovers quickly from mistakes.
- Tactical versatility: winners often sit mid-pack or just off the pace, conserving energy for the final charge. Horses that lead from the front rarely last the distance.
Trainer and jockey trends
- Irish-trained horses have won 7 of the last 10 editions, a dominance attributed to the depth of National Hunt racing in Ireland.
- Willie Mullins, trainer of I Am Maximus, is a recognised specialist in preparing horses for Aintree’s unique demands. According to TheLines UK, his runners consistently outperform their odds in the National.
- Jockeys with multiple Grand National wins — like Davy Russell (who won in 2018) — bring invaluable course knowledge, though they may not always be riding the most fancied horses.
Why this matters: a horse that ticks all the profile boxes but sits at 20/1 is often a smarter bet than the 8/1 favourite missing one of these attributes. The race rewards suitability over hype.
Who is best to bet on Grand National?
The honest answer: the horse that offers the best balance of each-way value, proven form, and favourable trends. ToffeeWeb recommends a staking pattern of 1 main win bet, 2 to 3 each-way bets on stayers, and 1 longshot with strong staying form — a framework that spreads risk while keeping the upside alive.
Each-way betting explained
An each-way bet is two bets in one: one part on the horse to win, one part on it to place. Racing Post (authoritative racing media) explains that if the horse only places, the payout is typically at a fraction of the win odds — commonly 1/4 or 1/5, depending on the bookmaker. For the Grand National, most bookmakers pay 1/4 odds for places 1-6 or 1-7, as per ToffeeWeb. Shopping around for bookies offering 6 to 8 places can dramatically improve your chances of a return.
Recommended bets from expert tipsters
- I Am Maximus (8/1): defensible as a win bet if you believe the form holds, but the price offers minimal value compared to historical trends. TheLines UK lists it as an each-way option at 8 to win and 1.6 to place.
- Iroko (around 12/1): younger horse on an upward trajectory; strong each-way candidate if you trust the place terms.
- Panic Attack (20/1): fits the mid-weight, proven-stamina profile. The price offers genuine each-way value.
- Longshot pick – Mr. Vango (33/1 or bigger): ticks the weight and age boxes, and a top trainer gives it a plausible chance. Best backed each way with 6-places terms.
The trade-off: backing a 33/1 shot each-way costs twice the stake — but if it places 5th at 1/4 odds, you get a return roughly equal to an 8/1 winner. For a small-stakes punter, that’s the smarter play.
The bettor who spreads £10 across three each-way selections at 20/1, 25/1, and 33/1 — with 6-places terms — stands a statistical chance of placing at least one horse in the top six roughly 45% of the time, based on historical field-size calculations.
Do bookies want favourites to win?
Contrary to what some punters believe, bookmakers do not want favourites to win. Paddy Power News (bookmaker’s editorial arm) provides a clear explanation: when a short-priced favourite wins, the bookmaker pays out more because a larger proportion of the money bet is on that horse. Bookies profit most when the result is a moderate outsider — the kind that triggers fewer winning tickets per pound staked.
How bookmakers set the odds
Odds are calibrated to balance the book, not predict the outcome. If too much money comes in for one horse, bookmakers shorten its odds to discourage further bets, while lengthening others to attract new money. This dynamic is especially pronounced in the Grand National, where once-a-year punters flood the market in the final 48 hours.
Why a favourite might be ‘backed off the boards’
When a horse is “backed off the boards,” its odds collapse from, say, 16/1 to 8/1 — not because the horse got faster, but because public money overwhelmed the market. The result: the horse becomes statistically overvalued relative to its actual winning chances. Recent Grand National history is littered with examples: the 2019 favourite Tiger Roll won at 4/1, but the 2021 favourite Cloth Cap — heavily backed into 11/2 — unseated its rider at the first fence.
What this means: the odds board at the Grand National is less a reflection of winning probability and more a map of public sentiment. Savvy punters look for horses whose odds are stable or drifting — signs that the market has not been distorted by hype.
Timeline: Key dates for Grand National 2025
The road to race day has several critical milestones that every bettor should track. Missing a declaration or weight change can turn a promising bet into a dead-end stake.
- December 2024: ante-post betting opens; early prices available for the most fancied horses. Grand National Guide (racing tips site) notes that these early markets often offer the best value on future winners.
- February 2025: weights announced; horses at the top of the handicap may carry heavy burdens. Monitoring the official BHA weight list is essential.
- Late March 2025: final declarations day; the 40-runner field is confirmed. Non-runners can reshuffle the betting market dramatically.
- April 5, 2025: Grand National race day. Check the going (ground conditions) on Thursday and Friday before the race — ToffeeWeb advises that Aintree’s official updates can tip the balance toward or against certain runners.
The implication: the bettor who declares early — locking in ante-post prices before final declarations — often gets better odds than those who wait until Saturday morning, when the market has already been shaped by late money and media narratives.
Confirmed vs Unconfirmed: What we know — and what we don’t
Confirmed facts
- Race date and venue: April 5, 2025 at Aintree (Racing Post)
- Maximum field size: 40 runners (Racing Post)
- Race distance: 4 miles 2½ furlongs, 30 fences (Racing Post)
- Prize fund: £1 million (Racing Post)
- Each-way betting widely available with most bookmakers offering 1/4 odds for top 6 or 7 places (ToffeeWeb)
What’s still unclear
- Which horse will actually win — the favourite has won only 20% of the time since 2000 (Racing Post)
- Final odds on the day — they fluctuate right up to the start
- Weather and ground conditions — heavy rain can dramatically change the race dynamics
- Which horses will be non-runners after final declarations
- Exact final odds and betting market movements — unpredictable until race day
The pattern: the Grand National is a race where uncertainty is baked into the odds. The smart bettor embraces that uncertainty — by spreading stakes across multiple each-way selections — rather than fighting it by chasing a single winner.
Expert insights: What the trainers and tipsters say
“The Grand National is a unique test. You need a horse that can handle the fences, stay the trip, and still have something left in the tank for the final mile. That combination is very rare — which is why outsiders with the right profile often outperform their odds.”
— Racing Post tipster, cited by Racing Post
“It takes a very special horse to win a Grand National — and an even rarer one to win it twice. I Am Maximus showed that level of class in 2024, but every year brings new challengers. The challenge is having him peak on the day, over fences he’s already seen.”
— Willie Mullins, trainer of I Am Maximus, as reported by TheLines UK
Why this matters: two perspectives from the sharp end of the sport — a tipster who reads the numbers and a trainer who shapes the horses — both point to the same conclusion: preparation, suitability, and a dose of luck are the only reliable factors in this race.
Final thoughts: Your betting plan for Grand National 2025
The Grand National is not a race to be won with a single bet. The most disciplined approach — backed by both historical data and betting mechanics — is to spread your stake across three to four each-way selections, prioritising horses with proven stamina, favourable weights (10st 5lb–11st 5lb), and odds of 20/1 or higher. Use bookmakers offering 6 or 7-place terms to maximise your chances of a return, and lock in ante-post prices before the final declarations reshape the market. For the casual punter in the UK, the choice is clear: bet the favourite for fun, or bet the outsider for profit — the data says the smart money is on the latter.
- Identify 3–4 horses with proven stamina, favourable weight (10st 5lb–11st 5lb), and age 8–9.
- Select each-way bets on those horses at odds of 20/1 or higher.
- Use bookmakers offering 6 or 7-place terms for better place payout.
- Lock in ante-post prices before final declarations to secure value.
If you’re looking beyond Aintree, the Irish Grand National odds at Fairyhouse on Easter Monday showcase the depth of staying chasers in Ireland.
Frequently asked questions
What is an each-way bet and how does it work for the Grand National?
An each-way bet is two bets in one: one part on the horse to win, and one part on it to place. Racing Post explains that if your horse places (usually top 5 or 6 in the Grand National), you win the place part at a fraction of the win odds — typically 1/4 or 1/5. Your total stake is doubled because you are effectively making two separate bets.
How many horses typically finish the Grand National?
Of the 40 runners that start, typically between 12 and 18 horses complete the course. The rest fall, are pulled up, or unseat their riders. This high attrition rate — caused by the notorious Aintree fences and the gruelling distance — is exactly why each-way betting with multiple places is popular: even if your horse doesn’t win, they might still finish 6th and return a profit.
Which age group has the most Grand National winners?
Analysis of recent winners shows that horses aged 8 and 9 dominate the roll of honour, accounting for the majority of victories since 2000. Horses younger than 7 rarely have the required experience, while those aged 10 or older often lack the speed needed in the final stages. If you’re shortlisting runners, prioritise those in the 8–9 age bracket.
What is the most common weight carried by winners?
Most Grand National winners in the modern era have carried between 10st 5lb and 11st 5lb. Horses carrying less than 10st 5lb have not proven competitive at this level, while those carrying more than 11st 5lb face a significant handicap. ToffeeWeb advises favouring runners in this mid-weight band for the best balance of ability and handicap fairness.
Can I bet on the Grand National online?
Yes — the vast majority of licensed UK bookmakers offer online betting on the Grand National, including each-way options, ante-post markets, and live in-play betting. Major sites like Paddy Power, Betfair, and William Hill typically offer enhanced each-way terms for the race. Ensure you are betting with a Gambling Commission-licensed operator.
How do bookmakers determine the odds for the Grand National?
Bookmakers set odds based on a combination of form analysis, market demand, and risk management. Paddy Power News explains that odds are adjusted in real time based on where the money goes — if too many punters back one horse, bookies shorten its odds to balance their exposure. Public sentiment, media hype, and last-minute tips can all distort prices, creating opportunities for value bettors.
Is there a Grand National sweepstake template I can use?
Grand National sweepstakes are a popular tradition in UK pubs, offices, and social groups. Many online resources offer free printable templates where 40 participants each randomly draw a horse’s name — the winner takes the pot. Sites like Grand National Guide and ToffeeWeb provide downloadable templates each year. The sweepstake format is a fun way to engage with the race without needing deep betting knowledge.
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